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marine weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM EDT Thu July 3 2008


Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and
southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w.


An upper level weakness in the central N Atlc will split the sfc
ridge in half...with the western-most high pressure center
shifting slightly W but keeping the ridge axis stationary over
the N Gulf coastal plains through Sat. Winds should remain
light to moderate from E to se across much of the Gulf of Mexico
through Sat as a result. On sun and Mon...the sfc ridge over
the W Gulf is expected to erode somewhat as a deep inverted
trough builds through the region in response to the upper level
low pinching off over the lower Mississippi Valley and the mid
level trough pushing E into the plains states. Look for winds
to shift more from the S and strengthen at the sfc over the W
Gulf sun and Mon. Upper level diffluence over the W Gulf could
support enhanced convection sun and Mon.


In the Caribbean...the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge to the north and low pressure over the South American
continent will continue to support moderate E trade winds
through the period. However...a series of tropical waves will
disturb this pattern...with the wave currently along 78w moving
W through the Gulf of Honduras by sun where it will encounter a
region of upper level diffluence that may enhance convection
with the wave. Elsewhere...the wave along 65w will push W of
Jamaica on sun...the wave along 52w will make its way E of the
islands on Sat...and the wave near 44 W will move through the
islands on sun.


In the Atlc...the pattern will be dominated by high pressure at
the surface through Sat. On sun...winds in the far E portion of
the forecast region should shift to the northeast in response to
T.S. Bertha. Expect seas to rise above 8 ft along 55 W by
Mon...with Max seas around 12 ft expected on Tue W of 55w to 60w
N of 20n.



Atlantic...
.None.


Caribbean...
.None.


Gulf of Mexico...
.None.


.forecaster schauer Clark. Tropical Prediction Center.







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