marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
1140 am PST Sat 21 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Cold front currently moving into the pz5 waters as of 18z.
Latest Quikscat pass showing winds generally 20 to 30 kt across
the pz5 and NW portion of the nrn pz6 waters ahead of the cold
front...which was verified by a ship nr 42n130w rptng 30 kt at
18z...as well as buoy 46089 rptng 25 g 30 kt at 19z. Still
expecting min gale conditions to develop along the front across
the pz5 waters this afternoon. Still expect a brief lull later
this afternoon as the front passes to the E and the next low
pres nr 46n137w approaches from the W. Low expected to move
generally to the W towards Cape Lookout and inland during the
overnight hours. Models still hinting at psbly a brief period of
storm force winds developing across the or waters later this
evening and into the overnight hours...as GFS still showing 50
kt bl wind and the usually conservative ECMWF and UKMET showing
40 to 45 kt sfc winds. Thinking has not changed with atmosphere
fairly unstable...some storm force winds may mix down to the
sfc. So will continue with storm warnings for the or
waters...and keep winds just below storm force for the WA waters
tonight.

So changes with the next system to affect the nrn waters Sun
night into Mon. Global models in general agrmt with the timing
and strength of the front...with gales dvlpg in the sly flow
ahead of the front Sun night and continuing into Mon...before
front weakens Mon night as it encounters the ridge to the se.

Good agrmt with the global models on the system to affect the
nrn waters Tue and Wed...with all models in agrmt with gales
across the WA waters Tue and continuing into Wed as the front
moves across the area. Gales may creep into the far NW portion
of the or waters...but will keep winds below gale force for now.
Again...front quickly weakens as it approaches the nrn pz6
waters Wed as it encounters the strong ridge to the se.

Some minor differences noted in the models for Thu. GFS tries to
keep the front alive across the nrn calif waters...with a weak
low trying to develop along the front and approach the area. The
06z GFS was much stronger with this low...with the 12z GFS now
barely showing a 1020 low. Majority of global
models...ECMWF/UKMET/cndn...all showing front dissipated by Thu
with high pres building in from the W. ECMWF is much stronger
with the ridge...about 5 mb higher than the other global models.
Will trend toward the UKMET and cndn and just have nly flow
around 10 to 20 kt for Thu.

Seas...ww3 looks reasonable across the cstl/offshr waters when
compared to latest sfc obs. Will generally stay close to
guidance for this pacakge.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS
12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale tonight into sun...hi
confdc. Gale Sun night into Mon...MDT to hi confdc. Gale Tue
into Wed...MDT confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Storm tonight...MDT
confdc...with gale into sun...hi confdc. Gale Sun night into
Mon...MDT confdc.

.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster achorn. Ocean forecast branch.

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