Marine weather index
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surf zone forecast
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
900 am HST Mon Oct 6 2008
hiz005>011-070100-
Oahu-
900 am HST Mon Oct 6 2008
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet through Tuesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Tuesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Tuesday.
Outlook through Sunday Oct 12:
there will be a series of relatively small swells affecting all
shores through Saturday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The
surf forecast is based on the significant wave height in the zone of
maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the
significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near
any surf zone.
&&
Collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast for Oahu
NWS/ncddc Honolulu HI
300 PM HST Fri Oct 3 2008
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at
300 PM when pat Caldwell is available. When pat Caldwell is not
available...the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for
4 days.
Forecast swl dmnt dmnt h h hgt wind wind spd
date hgt dir pd 1/3 1/10 tend prob spd dir tend
1 PM 3 NNE 10 4 6 down 11-16 E same
10/03 4 E 6 2 2 same
2 SSW 18 2 4 up
Sat 2 NNE 9 2 4 down low 11-16 E same
10/04 4 E 6 2 2 same low
2 S 17 2 4 same low
Sun 2 NNW 10 2 4 up low 11-16 E same
10/05 4 E 6 2 2 same low
2 S 14 3 5 same low
Mon 2 NNW 10 2 4 same low 11-16 E same
10/06 4 E 6 2 2 same low
2 SW 18 3 5 up low
Tue 2 NNW 10 2 4 same low 11-16 E same
10/07 2 NNE 10 2 4 up low
4 E 6 2 2 same low
2 SW 17 2 4 same low
Wed 2 N 10 2 4 same low 11-16 E same
10/08 4 E 6 2 2 same low
2 SW 15 2 4 down low
Legend:
swl hgt open ocean swell height measured from trough to crest
in feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
dmnt dir dominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 Compass
points
dmnt pd dominant period in seconds
h1/3 significant wave height in the surf zone
h1/10 average height of the highest one-tenth waves in the surf
zone
hgt tend height tendency of swell (valid values: up/down/same)
prob probability of occurrence (valid values: high/Med/low)
wind spd open water wind speed measured in knots located
20 nautical miles offshore
wind dir wind direction in 16 Compass points
spd tend wind speed tendency (valid values: up/down/same)
Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same
beach at different break areas.
Discussion:
summary...
mostly small surf through the period.
Detailed...
mid Friday on Southern Shores has small to occasional moderate
breakers from 185-200 degrees. One episode with 13-15 seconds is
declining while a new one with 17-19 seconds increases.
A series of systems to storm-force wind speeds tracked east from the
longitudes of Tasmania to se of New Zealand last week and through
this week. Models suggest this trend to continue into next week.
This should lead to an extended period of mostly small days with
peak days to occasional moderate heights. With the long travel
distance...arrival of sets is expected to be infrequent.
An extratropical cyclone to 936 mb central pressure last Friday
aimed high seas toward the americas. Angular spreading is bringing
in forerunners locally. Buoy 51002 and 51003 show an increase in
17-19 second energy this morning. This episode should peak late
Friday into mid Saturday...then slowly drop into Monday.
Another broad...storm-force system tracked se of Tasmania last
Monday into Tuesday. This should have forerunners building locally
Monday...peaking Tuesday...and dropping Wednesday.
Mid Friday on northern shores has upper-end small breakers at spots
exposed to 20-30 degrees. The long-lived N to NNE episode was
generated by a near gale low pressure that tracked from just NE of
Hawaii into the Gulf of Alaska earlier this week. It had a
short-lived fetch of gales on Tuesday...that accounted for the
upswing in dominant wave period on Thursday from 20-30 degrees. This
episode should drop to tiny to small levels on Saturday.
Various weak low pressures with mostly fresh to strong breezes...and
small pockets of near gales...have been spread along about 40n over
the past few days. The jet stream is zonal...or west to east
oriented...making for fast moving systems and keeping local surf
below seasonal norms. Tiny to small surf is expected off and on
Sunday through Wednesday from 330-020 degrees.
Mid Friday on Eastern Shores has tiny to small breakers out of 50-90
degrees. Locations exposed to 20-30 degrees have larger breakers as
described above. Moderate to low-end fresh breezes are expected
through the period...weak enough to keep windswell small.
Into the long range...fresh to strong trades well upstream to the
east and influence of tropical system Marie in the eastern Pacific
could bring up moderate breakers from 70-100 degrees late next week
under moderate trades locally. In the North Pacific...a developing
low pressure is modelled within 1000 nm to the NNW early next week
although initial estimates do not favor surf beyond small for Hawaii
from this system. Further away...models show near gales to gales
near the western Aleutians later next week...suggesting small to
moderate NNW surf locally roughly around 10/13.
From the southern hemisphere...activity remains elevated from
Tasmania to se of New Zealand...with similar small to occasional
moderate surf expected through next weekend from 180-220 degrees.
Long range estimates are Dicey. The next collaborative forecast will
be issued on 10/14.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of
NWS and ncddc. Please send suggestions to W-hfo.Webmaster@noaa.Gov
or call the warning coordination meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources:
see /in lowercase/ http://www.Prh.NOAA.Gov/hnl/pages/marine.Php
$$
NWS forecaster Powell and ncddc pat Caldwell
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